Earth’s Anti-asteroid Technology Crashes and Burns in NASA’s Hypothetical Collision
In a recent “tabletop” exercise, NASA and its peers posed a thought-provoking challenge: Does Earth have the technology to stop an asteroid in its path? The hypothetical scenario stirred up some interesting discussion on what, if anything, could be done to change our fate in the event of a catastrophic collision.
Six Months to Save the World
Scientists were pitted against 2021 PDC, a hypothetical asteroid determined to be between 35 and 700 meters in size and traveling over a 35 million-mile course to impact Earth. The scenario gave the scientists a timeline of six months before a literal doomsday deadline. As the asteroid drew dangerously closer to collision somewhere in the Eastern Hemisphere, the team gradually deduced and confronted our planet’s limited options for facing the event.
Over a real-time period of six days, scientists were able to identify 2021 PDC’s moment of detection, its likely trajectory, and its point of impact. By the second day, it was established that the asteroid would strike somewhere within Europe or Northern Africa, which was later narrowed to an area between Germany and the Czech Republic.
The exercise continuously asked what technology could prevent or mitigate the impact. It was determined that, within a hypothetical window of just six months to collision, no spacecraft could be launched in time to have any effect. All hope of deflecting such an asteroid would require more time to plan and deploy an operation.
What About a Nuclear Option?
Suggestions of using a nuclear device to alter the path of the asteroid or mitigate its destructive potential held some promise, although to limited effectiveness without a more precise understanding of 2021 PDC properties. Even with such a prospect, the scientists determined that current nuclear explosive capabilities would likely be inadequate for disrupting larger asteroids.
The anti-asteroid exercise spurred pressing questions on technology improvements for planning defensive launches beyond Earth’s atmosphere, as well as what spacecraft should be developed to sufficiently counter such a threat.
What are your thoughts on the outcome of NASA’s recent asteroid challenge? Are you surprised to learn that our options for dealing with such a potential calamity are so few? Comment and share your thoughts.